Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 43.071044 50.942883 59.629069 69.894784 81.664042 94.702646 110.207073
2024-10-06 32.176270 42.753395 55.601241 72.221849 93.004682 117.973525 150.062959
2024-10-13 24.419488 35.609212 50.268859 70.598010 97.729894 132.326256 179.346309
2024-10-20 21.913824 34.380899 51.702652 77.031310 112.527556 159.820204 226.761604
2024-10-27 17.058036 28.836120 46.200191 72.962962 112.303353 166.983694 247.438119
2024-11-03 15.072461 27.120018 45.774578 75.787457 121.633035 187.534883 287.498594
2024-11-10 13.719144 26.122834 46.195136 79.743846 132.748041 211.200120 333.364458
2024-11-17 12.450276 25.023594 46.238246 82.984394 142.882340 233.948888 379.186761
2024-11-24 10.889262 23.132758 44.686478 83.382925 148.450830 250.030427 415.871631
2024-12-01 9.161619 20.626819 41.720675 81.013258 149.205817 258.543241 441.283675
2024-12-08 8.085640 19.188009 40.439625 81.343458 154.334552 274.123582 478.441526
2024-12-15 7.247347 18.083228 39.615996 82.350462 160.601712 291.808077 519.801745
2024-12-22 5.760502 15.448368 35.754048 77.829406 157.694877 295.637271 541.534898
2024-12-29 5.139699 14.644089 35.467208 80.169036 167.533543 322.071077 603.229103
2025-01-05 4.269188 13.038771 33.242117 78.369318 169.470299 334.905834 642.682825
2025-01-12 4.177098 13.364067 35.245210 85.408169 188.830224 379.849853 740.347226
2025-01-19 3.334632 11.496744 31.995392 80.956122 185.275768 383.084974 764.730333
2025-01-26 3.061673 11.142083 32.220129 84.047114 197.050653 415.282128 842.811862
2025-02-02 2.879620 11.011207 32.965503 88.374582 211.702867 453.773514 934.453715
2025-02-09 2.673824 10.756667 33.356734 91.917210 224.977209 490.410461 1024.591953
2025-02-16 2.356822 10.058560 32.480092 92.352780 231.617023 514.545579 1092.570696
2025-02-23 1.970545 9.007527 30.466198 89.762521 231.376433 525.025261 1135.104628
2025-03-02 1.738889 8.435335 29.682746 90.123511 237.711518 549.025383 1204.895525